After the manic intensity of the auction draft, I was absolutely determined on this one to do a bog standard draft, with a hitting bias.
This league is a three division affair, but a couple of last years players dropped out of div 2, so I got a place straight into div 2, and wanted to make sure I at least have a fairly stable year in this one, especially since it was a 14 team 5x5 league, which I wasn't sure about re tactics for drafting.
Miguel Cabrera
Prince Fielder
Vlad Guerrerro
Shane Victorino
Nate McClouth
were the core of my batting, I also picked up
Milton Bradley
Nelson Cruz
Howie Kendrick
So well covered for pop, ave, but a bit thin on steals
Clint Barmes utility, for 3 position cover and steals, and Justin Upton for possible breakout year, left two weak positions, Saltalamacchia for catcher, and Khalil Greene at SS, Greene could easily have a recovery year, Salty we'll see, it's possible too
But offensively not too bad, except for steals
On the pitching front,
SP
Daisuke,
David Price
Matt Garza
Ubaldo Jimenez
RP
Joakim Soria
Joel Hanrahan
Frank Francisco
and Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler as relievers
Again not too displeased, especially for a 14 team league.
Could be tricky if Price doesn't get called up til May, a distinct possibility, but I might use either of Wheeler or Balfour, for pitch and ditch, or maybe not ditch if I pick up someone useful, or one of my outfielders for a trade if they start hot.
Wednesday 25 March 2009
My first auction league draft
Not having read up a lot on auction drafts, I decided to use the composite price projections for my auction league set up at this site, especially since it incorporates Chone, my favourite projection system.
My initial ideas were to go for a fairly balanced approach with a slight bias toward hitting.
After getting Hanley Ramirez for a couple of dollars more than projected, I soon picked up Johan Santana for a good deal less than expected, and early on suspected pitching was being under-valued as per my projection system. So although I did pick up Brian McCann marginally under expected price, started focusing on pitching and picked up the following at well below my projected prices - CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Jonathon Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, although that was probably one too many in terms of dollar pay outs, since I was now quite low, but I was aiming to pick up about 2/3 of my remaining position players, and do the rest on the waiver wire after the draft. I soon found out the draft software does not allow you to do this, you have to keep at least one dollar for every position not filled. This drastically effected my drafting abilities over a couple of young un's like Nelson Cruz late in the draft, who was nominated just before I was going to.
So bearing all this in mind I'm not too displeased with my offensive set up, definitely lacking in power and steals too, but I made sure I picked for average, in the likely probability that if I trade one or two of my big arms hopefully for some decent pop and steals
Brian McCann - C
Casey Kotchmann - 1B
Aaron Hill, Tor 2B
Melvin Mora , Bal 3B
Hanley Ramirez, Fla SS
2B/SS Mike Fontenot, ChC 2B
Mike Lowell, Bos 3B
Johnny Damon , NYY OF, DH
Kendry Morales LAA OF
David DeJesus , KC OF
Jason Kubel, Min OF, DH
Ryan Spilborghs, Col OF
Jody Gerut, SD OF
Bench
Micah Hoffpauir, ChC OF
Nate Schierholtz, SF OF
Chris Dickerson, Cin OF
SP
Johan Santana
CC Sabathia
Cole Hamels
Jordan Zimmernan
Kelvim Escobar
RP
Jonathon Papelbon
Mariano Rivera
Joe Nathan
Jason Motte
Bear in mind this is a 5x5, with only 3 bench players, so although my pitching is really strong at the moment I've not got a single back up pitcher, so can't go the pitch and ditch route, although the innings maximum in this league is lower than normal.
Straight after the draft Ramirez, Hamels, Santana, Rivera and Nathan, I think, were suddenly day to day, but slowly they are all coming off of day to day, much to my relief ;)
So I'm well interested to know how this league will pan out for me, since i really don't have a clue how I'm standing with such a lopsided team, though I'm well pleased I got position scarcity offence like SS and C covered so well, and some pop with Hill at 2nd, which should make it easier for trading less scarce positions, but my injury risks, like Lowell, Mora and Hill just coming back worry me. Morales needs to have a good year too, as well as 2 of my younger outfielders.
But certainly it was fascinating doing an auction draft, and possibly a little too easy to get into reactive mode and dive in, when a lot of bargains are there to be had later on, which I lost on 2 dollar bids ;), live and learn. I also need to read up on the psychology of nominating, it's certainly a completely different kind of draft, yet I'm also pleased at how I changed tack so totally, and early on, we'll see whether that pays off, but I reckon I gained value in the pitching stakes, but lost some of that later by having so little left.
My initial ideas were to go for a fairly balanced approach with a slight bias toward hitting.
After getting Hanley Ramirez for a couple of dollars more than projected, I soon picked up Johan Santana for a good deal less than expected, and early on suspected pitching was being under-valued as per my projection system. So although I did pick up Brian McCann marginally under expected price, started focusing on pitching and picked up the following at well below my projected prices - CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Jonathon Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, although that was probably one too many in terms of dollar pay outs, since I was now quite low, but I was aiming to pick up about 2/3 of my remaining position players, and do the rest on the waiver wire after the draft. I soon found out the draft software does not allow you to do this, you have to keep at least one dollar for every position not filled. This drastically effected my drafting abilities over a couple of young un's like Nelson Cruz late in the draft, who was nominated just before I was going to.
So bearing all this in mind I'm not too displeased with my offensive set up, definitely lacking in power and steals too, but I made sure I picked for average, in the likely probability that if I trade one or two of my big arms hopefully for some decent pop and steals
Brian McCann - C
Casey Kotchmann - 1B
Aaron Hill, Tor 2B
Melvin Mora , Bal 3B
Hanley Ramirez, Fla SS
2B/SS Mike Fontenot, ChC 2B
Mike Lowell, Bos 3B
Johnny Damon , NYY OF, DH
Kendry Morales LAA OF
David DeJesus , KC OF
Jason Kubel, Min OF, DH
Ryan Spilborghs, Col OF
Jody Gerut, SD OF
Bench
Micah Hoffpauir, ChC OF
Nate Schierholtz, SF OF
Chris Dickerson, Cin OF
SP
Johan Santana
CC Sabathia
Cole Hamels
Jordan Zimmernan
Kelvim Escobar
RP
Jonathon Papelbon
Mariano Rivera
Joe Nathan
Jason Motte
Bear in mind this is a 5x5, with only 3 bench players, so although my pitching is really strong at the moment I've not got a single back up pitcher, so can't go the pitch and ditch route, although the innings maximum in this league is lower than normal.
Straight after the draft Ramirez, Hamels, Santana, Rivera and Nathan, I think, were suddenly day to day, but slowly they are all coming off of day to day, much to my relief ;)
So I'm well interested to know how this league will pan out for me, since i really don't have a clue how I'm standing with such a lopsided team, though I'm well pleased I got position scarcity offence like SS and C covered so well, and some pop with Hill at 2nd, which should make it easier for trading less scarce positions, but my injury risks, like Lowell, Mora and Hill just coming back worry me. Morales needs to have a good year too, as well as 2 of my younger outfielders.
But certainly it was fascinating doing an auction draft, and possibly a little too easy to get into reactive mode and dive in, when a lot of bargains are there to be had later on, which I lost on 2 dollar bids ;), live and learn. I also need to read up on the psychology of nominating, it's certainly a completely different kind of draft, yet I'm also pleased at how I changed tack so totally, and early on, we'll see whether that pays off, but I reckon I gained value in the pitching stakes, but lost some of that later by having so little left.
That's my three drafts for 2009 finished
In my 15 keeper league, with minor keepers too, still re-building after last years massive re-building, but got a high proportion of the players I wanted which was cool. I'll cover the other two drafts in subsequent posts.
C - Victor Martinez (keeper), hopefully some pop back this year after last years injuries and complete loss of power
C- John Baker - Got him off waivers last year, very consistent, decent batting ave so he won't be a drain on team ave, no pop though
1-James Loney (keeper), very consistent, reliable, lack of pop for first base though
2- Mike Fontenot - Hopefully he gets the majority of playing time over Miles, could be a really handy addition late in the draft, even with only 400 AB he could cover some of the slack, was surprized and pleased to get him so late
2 - Chris Getz - We'll see on this one, he was my last pick, so no great loss if he pans out, but Minors stats look interesting
3- Chone Figgins (keeper) - More of the usual please, and not too many injuries
3- Mark Reynolds (keeper)- Hopefully he gets off to an Ok start, cuts down on the strike outs a bit, and goes into early 30's in HR's. Slight worry a bad start with worse strike outs than last year could panic the D'Backs management, or if his fielding gets worse, fingers crossed on this one. If I lose him that's a major power source gone, and too early to find gems like I did offensively late last year
SS - Mike Aviles (keeper)- what a great pick up he was last year, hopefully not too much regression, and I don't end up regretting letting Michael Young go as part of my oldies clear out
OF- Ryan Braun, nuff said, and the offensive centrepiece for me,
OF- Torii Hunter, Magglio Ordonez, both consistent as, fair amount of pop, hopefully the ageing process doesn't affect both of them too much
OF- Nelson Cruz, Chris Dickerson, Jodie Gerut, Shin Soo-Choo, Ryan Spilborghs, great pick ups last year, all should be regulars, and with increased playing time this year hopefully they'll cover some of the power loss of letting Thome go, and that their averages aren't too bad, well Dickerson and Cruz specially with regard to averages
OF - Denard Span, my one worry, especially the way he's been playing this spring, I need his steals, though Dickerson, Spilborghs and Cruz should cover that if he loses playing time
OF - Chase Headley, mr consistent, and a steady slow learner all his career, increases across the board would be good and distinctly possible, inc an increase in ave. Need it from him since he was a minor league league keeper for me this year, which meant he was my 16th draft pick, which was a about a 3 round reach, but I didn't want to risk losing him
OF- Now onto the late round young-uns I took a flyer on, Micah Hoffpauir and Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz should be getting plenty of playing time and could be a real bonus, Hoffpauir less playing time, but should reach the 25 roster and get 200 plus AB's, possibly more with injuries. Both should bat for decent ave and some pop, Hoffpauir could be this years Nelson Cruz for me.
In my minor leaguers I have Elvis Andrus and Jason Donald at short stops, both should get extended playing time this year, possibly Andrus more than Donald, but I'm wary this year, I'll take a hit on his AVE and OBP and SLG for sure, so will probably keep him in the minors, unless he's getting on base and stealing loads. I've also got two excellent back up catchers in Carlos Santana and Max Ramirez, next year I suspect for both of them, though bearing in mind the Indians and Rangers catching depth they could both easily get traded, so we'll see on that one. I've also got Chris Marrerro of the Nationals, and that's definitely at least another years wait.
But I'm overloaded with outfielders, and might well be looking for some trade action about a month in once the picture is clearer
Now onto the pitching, which has weaknesses, especially the SP's at the mo..
SP Jake Peavy (keeper), Ervin Santana (keeper), Kelvim Escobar (was lucky to pick him up so late, in my minor's lists David Price and Derek Holland. Don't think Santana and Escobar will be around til May, Price as well, Holland a good chance of getting called up mid season. So definitely a bit thin there, but the peripherals for all of them are excellent, suspect Escobar is likely to be the only one under 8K/9, and while waiting I've stacked up on high strike out relief pitchers, looking to get holds and saves going early, it's a 7x7 league, check out which of my excess outfielders are firing, and keep an eye for any breaking SP's like Cueto and Volquez from last year early on in the season, or maybe look to trade.
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (keeper), Matt Lindstrom, Joel Hanrahan are my save specialists, with good peripherals. I've also got Jason Motte in my minor leaguers, well pleased with that pick, and Dan Wheeler and JP Howell for picking up some spare saves when Perrcival's out, almost an inevitability, and Isringhausen loses it, a good chance there too. But if not Motte should get at worst some saves, if not become the Cards closer. So saves is looking OK barring injuries.
Re holds, Wheeler Howell, Dotel and Thornton from the White Sox all have high K/9 projections bar Wheeler, and he's so useful for holds and saves, and very consistent.
But I do have pitching weaknesses, I reckon I'll be low on wins, possibly mid table at best on strike outs, but my whip, K/9 and ERA should be near the top. I should be fine for saves, with Motte covering for Lindstrom if he's injured, loses his saver position, and Hanrahans low save potential, which could be higher if the Nationals improve a bit this year.
So all in all, not too displeased on the pitching front, definitely much tougher in my picks this year re peripherals. batting wise think I should be improved this year on ave, got some suspicions about power especially, which is why I stacked up on those outfielders, some worries about Reynolds and lack of cover for 1st and 3rd, and possibly losing Span's steals, but fairly confident I've covered those, so looking forward to a slightly improved year this year from 6th out of 12 last year, and that I'm recovering further from what turned out to be my bad first draft ever last year in this league, covered earlier in a my blog here
C - Victor Martinez (keeper), hopefully some pop back this year after last years injuries and complete loss of power
C- John Baker - Got him off waivers last year, very consistent, decent batting ave so he won't be a drain on team ave, no pop though
1-James Loney (keeper), very consistent, reliable, lack of pop for first base though
2- Mike Fontenot - Hopefully he gets the majority of playing time over Miles, could be a really handy addition late in the draft, even with only 400 AB he could cover some of the slack, was surprized and pleased to get him so late
2 - Chris Getz - We'll see on this one, he was my last pick, so no great loss if he pans out, but Minors stats look interesting
3- Chone Figgins (keeper) - More of the usual please, and not too many injuries
3- Mark Reynolds (keeper)- Hopefully he gets off to an Ok start, cuts down on the strike outs a bit, and goes into early 30's in HR's. Slight worry a bad start with worse strike outs than last year could panic the D'Backs management, or if his fielding gets worse, fingers crossed on this one. If I lose him that's a major power source gone, and too early to find gems like I did offensively late last year
SS - Mike Aviles (keeper)- what a great pick up he was last year, hopefully not too much regression, and I don't end up regretting letting Michael Young go as part of my oldies clear out
OF- Ryan Braun, nuff said, and the offensive centrepiece for me,
OF- Torii Hunter, Magglio Ordonez, both consistent as, fair amount of pop, hopefully the ageing process doesn't affect both of them too much
OF- Nelson Cruz, Chris Dickerson, Jodie Gerut, Shin Soo-Choo, Ryan Spilborghs, great pick ups last year, all should be regulars, and with increased playing time this year hopefully they'll cover some of the power loss of letting Thome go, and that their averages aren't too bad, well Dickerson and Cruz specially with regard to averages
OF - Denard Span, my one worry, especially the way he's been playing this spring, I need his steals, though Dickerson, Spilborghs and Cruz should cover that if he loses playing time
OF - Chase Headley, mr consistent, and a steady slow learner all his career, increases across the board would be good and distinctly possible, inc an increase in ave. Need it from him since he was a minor league league keeper for me this year, which meant he was my 16th draft pick, which was a about a 3 round reach, but I didn't want to risk losing him
OF- Now onto the late round young-uns I took a flyer on, Micah Hoffpauir and Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz should be getting plenty of playing time and could be a real bonus, Hoffpauir less playing time, but should reach the 25 roster and get 200 plus AB's, possibly more with injuries. Both should bat for decent ave and some pop, Hoffpauir could be this years Nelson Cruz for me.
In my minor leaguers I have Elvis Andrus and Jason Donald at short stops, both should get extended playing time this year, possibly Andrus more than Donald, but I'm wary this year, I'll take a hit on his AVE and OBP and SLG for sure, so will probably keep him in the minors, unless he's getting on base and stealing loads. I've also got two excellent back up catchers in Carlos Santana and Max Ramirez, next year I suspect for both of them, though bearing in mind the Indians and Rangers catching depth they could both easily get traded, so we'll see on that one. I've also got Chris Marrerro of the Nationals, and that's definitely at least another years wait.
But I'm overloaded with outfielders, and might well be looking for some trade action about a month in once the picture is clearer
Now onto the pitching, which has weaknesses, especially the SP's at the mo..
SP Jake Peavy (keeper), Ervin Santana (keeper), Kelvim Escobar (was lucky to pick him up so late, in my minor's lists David Price and Derek Holland. Don't think Santana and Escobar will be around til May, Price as well, Holland a good chance of getting called up mid season. So definitely a bit thin there, but the peripherals for all of them are excellent, suspect Escobar is likely to be the only one under 8K/9, and while waiting I've stacked up on high strike out relief pitchers, looking to get holds and saves going early, it's a 7x7 league, check out which of my excess outfielders are firing, and keep an eye for any breaking SP's like Cueto and Volquez from last year early on in the season, or maybe look to trade.
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (keeper), Matt Lindstrom, Joel Hanrahan are my save specialists, with good peripherals. I've also got Jason Motte in my minor leaguers, well pleased with that pick, and Dan Wheeler and JP Howell for picking up some spare saves when Perrcival's out, almost an inevitability, and Isringhausen loses it, a good chance there too. But if not Motte should get at worst some saves, if not become the Cards closer. So saves is looking OK barring injuries.
Re holds, Wheeler Howell, Dotel and Thornton from the White Sox all have high K/9 projections bar Wheeler, and he's so useful for holds and saves, and very consistent.
But I do have pitching weaknesses, I reckon I'll be low on wins, possibly mid table at best on strike outs, but my whip, K/9 and ERA should be near the top. I should be fine for saves, with Motte covering for Lindstrom if he's injured, loses his saver position, and Hanrahans low save potential, which could be higher if the Nationals improve a bit this year.
So all in all, not too displeased on the pitching front, definitely much tougher in my picks this year re peripherals. batting wise think I should be improved this year on ave, got some suspicions about power especially, which is why I stacked up on those outfielders, some worries about Reynolds and lack of cover for 1st and 3rd, and possibly losing Span's steals, but fairly confident I've covered those, so looking forward to a slightly improved year this year from 6th out of 12 last year, and that I'm recovering further from what turned out to be my bad first draft ever last year in this league, covered earlier in a my blog here
Thursday 26 February 2009
Baseball Fitness Training
All five of these sessions for baseball specific fitness are superb, certainly the best I've found on the net
Active Warm Up
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS (Chicago White Sox)
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565663
Leg Circuit
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565571
Lower Body Strength
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565652
Core Training
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565604
Upper Body Strength
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565674
Active Warm Up
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS (Chicago White Sox)
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565663
Leg Circuit
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565571
Lower Body Strength
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565652
Core Training
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565604
Upper Body Strength
With Allen Thomas Director of Conditioning CWS
http://exercisetv.tv/watchvideo.aspx?id=600565674
Thursday 19 February 2009
BB - Year 1 in fantasy baseball
After almost a year and a half of finding baseball had pretty much taken over my life, watching loads, reading loads, playing for real, playing MVP 2005 online, the next obvious outlet was going to be fantasy baseball.
Time to start testing out whether I had taken anything in with my experiences, and especially how deep my shallow understanding of sabermetrics had taken hold of me.
So I plunged in, bought the Diamond Draft software, started reading loads of fantasy sites.
(1)Signed up for a mostly Brit, 15 keeper, 7x7 with minor league keepers too, 12 team, 28 roster plus minors mixed league on ESPN with rosters set daily.
(2) A CBS points scoring H2H league with some of the guys off of our mvp2005 league, set weekly rosters
(3) Another Yahoo rotisserie league, mostly Italians started by one of the guys in mvpe, which was a 25 roster 15x15, maybe more ;) H2H league
(4) Fantasy Baseball UK, where you have a budget, and all players have access to the total pool of players in MLB at all times, but players value goes up with improved performance during the season, so it definitely helps to have a settled roster, set weekly.
(5)Salary Cap on Facebook, similar to 4 but can be set daily
(6) Post All-Star Salary Cap, very similar to 5, but obviously from the post All Star break ;)
(League 2 CBS H2H) I found this a frustrating league, rosters too small, little flexibility, because it's set for the week if you got 2 injuries, or players out for whatever reason you were stuffed, also it was points based which I never got completely top grips with in terms of utilizing properly. There was also a curious rule, I picked up McClouth and Quentin early on, but wasn't allowed to drop them later, same for Volquez, initially I was about 3rd/4th out of 12, but I gradually slipped over the season and ended up 6th, just missing out on the post season. Shan't be repeating that format, seemed too random, maybe I just needed to read up more on that one. Very little sense of community.
(3 Yahoo H2H) I initially started quite well, was about 4th out of 14, slipped to 8th, finished in 6th, but never enjoyed the league, no community contact, few trades, way too many stats, didn't like the yahoo layout, and was least involved in this one, felt very anonymous.
(4 Fantasy baseball UK) Was an interesting journey, picked too many streaky players early on, gradually started understanding the underlying stats more, and producing a good balance between established pricy stars, and fairly reliable young un's. Early on was hovering around 800th out of 4100, about mid season suddenly leapt to about 580th, then in the last month another jump to finish at 320, I needed it, my rivalry with someone I know - hey Mikey you still owe me a fiver I think ;), he'd made similar leaps as me during the season, but he didn't make the last one :) All in all not bad at all for a first year, and definitely aiming higher on that one this year.
(5 Facebook Salary Cap) and (6 Facebook Post-All Star Salary Cap) did really well, looking at daily match ups helped me a lot here, and similar progress in leaps as on the UK one, but with better results 18/8000 on post all star at the finish, 16th out of 21000 on the main salary cap. Gonna be hard to top those this year, though I've also learnt enough now to give it a shot, suspect I was in the top 5 the last 2 months in both leagues. Nothing like coming up against a bunch of low attention span youngsters to boost your self esteem ;)
(1 Brits ESPN 7x7 15 keeper league, with minors) Really though nearly everything I learnt this year came from 1, which I was heavily involved in.
For my first draft I definitely made some serious mistakes, too many oldies, had no idea how quickly their stats can drop off in the 35 plus age group if you pick the wrong year, picked players with poor consistency, and didn't realize just how far off the projections could be, waited too patiently with some players before dumping them, though that seriously hurt me with Ethier, I dumped him just before Manny arrived, and just before he got really hot but we were already 2/3 into the sdeason then, and I was desperate.
First 6 weeks very stable at bout 3/4th place out of 12, marginally off the leaders, but I was wasting a spot on Ken Griffey and Chris Duncan. Willingham and Jacobs got injured then when they came back were awful. Victor Martinez was awful, then injured, I'd picked him 3rd, Michael Young disappointing, especially on OPS, Figgins underperforming, or out injured, Peavy wasn't firing on all cylinders, he was my 2nd pick, Oliver Perez went truly atrocious, Randy Johnson mostly bad, Rafael Betancourt a disaster, as was Heilman, Fausto Carmona, and Betancourt, nuff said, and I was in freefall.
Ryan Braun and Francisco Rodriguez were the only outstanding performers, Hunter and Ordonez very reliable, as were Theriot and Loney at a lower level, ie average, and Wheeler was holding my holds together, but Frankie Rodriguez was, even with all the saves, struggling to do it on his own
By the All-Star break I'd plummeted from 100-110 points, down to 68, and was still dropping, soon 11th, and looking likely to be 12th. My season was over, so I decided to get drastic, and dropped over half my roster. Drastically trawled the waiver wires, anyone hitting 500 over the last week to 2 weeks I was watching like a hawk. On pitching my strike outs were low, no-one was winning games, with Betancourt out my saves were totally reliant on Frankie Rodriguez, then Wheeler started to get saves, so I decided to pick up Balfour and Howell, and Ervin Santana (a bit earlier, I had him and Saunders for a while), so I started to stabilize my strike outs and saves, and improve my holds, even though still not winning games. Thome started to pick up.
But the batting was still problematic, I was getting through loads of streaky batters who would suddenly slump, so I started looking at the peripherals on Fan Graphs (what a seriously wicked site that is) like Contact Rates, O Swing, checking on BABIP and seeing if that was just luck or a part of their career patterns, but also I started to seriously watch games in which those waiver wire batters were playing, and seeing how much I trusted them, how easily they were stitched up etc, how quickly they were learning, and I started to make some sound judgements, picked up Aviles, Shin Soo-Choo, Denard Span, Jayson Werth for a while til he slumped, Spilborghs til he got injured, Mark Reynolds (even with the bad BA, I'd decided two sluggers with a bad BA were OK for now, my BA was seriously wrecked anyways, but there were a few teams nearby re runs and homers and rbi's. Thome was now picking up more, Figgins back and performing more creditably, picked up Mora, Fernando Tatis. Salomon Torres I picked up early too and he helped on the saves, This stabilized stuff, and I got back to about 73, and 9th place, but then got stuck there coming to the last month of the season. I was now tuning into new arrivals quite fast, after 3 games loved watching Nelson Cruz, and trusted him, felt his attitude was spot on, very zen, and since the Rangers were scoring runs at will in this period also picked up Marlon Byrd and Gerald, Laird picked up Dickerson, Jody Gerut, and now I was motoring, and finished the season in 6th place, on 93 points, and only 10 points off from the scrap for 3rd. An intense learning curve.
So what did I learn?
Starters, there are always semi reasonable starters coming up, who'll get you Ok'ish stats, but look for relievers who are dual qualified, with high strike out rates, set up men behind closers who are wavering, batters who are hot, but if their peripherals are iffy dump them fast at the remotest sign of a slump, even at the risk of losing them - thankfully I got Aviles back after he hit a mini slump. Look for teams who are hot, but as much as looking at the peripherals, seriously watch players really early on in their arrival, and see how fragile their confidence at the plate is, how easily they are stitched up, how much they believe in themselves, and how quickly they are learning.
Fingers crossed for ok'ish production from Choo, Cruz, Span and Aviles this season, they are in my keepers. And yeah I don't expect the same output this season from them, and I won't wait anywheres near as long before dumping players this year, since I now know how many players come through with value during the season, who weren't in the top 50/100 prospect lists, but have serious value even if long term. Hopefully I've pulled back a little from the bad draft I made last year.
And as an oldie, I hate to say it, but one at most of them on a team, the drop off when it comes is not shallow for position oldies in the MLB.
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Time to start testing out whether I had taken anything in with my experiences, and especially how deep my shallow understanding of sabermetrics had taken hold of me.
So I plunged in, bought the Diamond Draft software, started reading loads of fantasy sites.
(1)Signed up for a mostly Brit, 15 keeper, 7x7 with minor league keepers too, 12 team, 28 roster plus minors mixed league on ESPN with rosters set daily.
(2) A CBS points scoring H2H league with some of the guys off of our mvp2005 league, set weekly rosters
(3) Another Yahoo rotisserie league, mostly Italians started by one of the guys in mvpe, which was a 25 roster 15x15, maybe more ;) H2H league
(4) Fantasy Baseball UK, where you have a budget, and all players have access to the total pool of players in MLB at all times, but players value goes up with improved performance during the season, so it definitely helps to have a settled roster, set weekly.
(5)Salary Cap on Facebook, similar to 4 but can be set daily
(6) Post All-Star Salary Cap, very similar to 5, but obviously from the post All Star break ;)
(League 2 CBS H2H) I found this a frustrating league, rosters too small, little flexibility, because it's set for the week if you got 2 injuries, or players out for whatever reason you were stuffed, also it was points based which I never got completely top grips with in terms of utilizing properly. There was also a curious rule, I picked up McClouth and Quentin early on, but wasn't allowed to drop them later, same for Volquez, initially I was about 3rd/4th out of 12, but I gradually slipped over the season and ended up 6th, just missing out on the post season. Shan't be repeating that format, seemed too random, maybe I just needed to read up more on that one. Very little sense of community.
(3 Yahoo H2H) I initially started quite well, was about 4th out of 14, slipped to 8th, finished in 6th, but never enjoyed the league, no community contact, few trades, way too many stats, didn't like the yahoo layout, and was least involved in this one, felt very anonymous.
(4 Fantasy baseball UK) Was an interesting journey, picked too many streaky players early on, gradually started understanding the underlying stats more, and producing a good balance between established pricy stars, and fairly reliable young un's. Early on was hovering around 800th out of 4100, about mid season suddenly leapt to about 580th, then in the last month another jump to finish at 320, I needed it, my rivalry with someone I know - hey Mikey you still owe me a fiver I think ;), he'd made similar leaps as me during the season, but he didn't make the last one :) All in all not bad at all for a first year, and definitely aiming higher on that one this year.
(5 Facebook Salary Cap) and (6 Facebook Post-All Star Salary Cap) did really well, looking at daily match ups helped me a lot here, and similar progress in leaps as on the UK one, but with better results 18/8000 on post all star at the finish, 16th out of 21000 on the main salary cap. Gonna be hard to top those this year, though I've also learnt enough now to give it a shot, suspect I was in the top 5 the last 2 months in both leagues. Nothing like coming up against a bunch of low attention span youngsters to boost your self esteem ;)
(1 Brits ESPN 7x7 15 keeper league, with minors) Really though nearly everything I learnt this year came from 1, which I was heavily involved in.
For my first draft I definitely made some serious mistakes, too many oldies, had no idea how quickly their stats can drop off in the 35 plus age group if you pick the wrong year, picked players with poor consistency, and didn't realize just how far off the projections could be, waited too patiently with some players before dumping them, though that seriously hurt me with Ethier, I dumped him just before Manny arrived, and just before he got really hot but we were already 2/3 into the sdeason then, and I was desperate.
First 6 weeks very stable at bout 3/4th place out of 12, marginally off the leaders, but I was wasting a spot on Ken Griffey and Chris Duncan. Willingham and Jacobs got injured then when they came back were awful. Victor Martinez was awful, then injured, I'd picked him 3rd, Michael Young disappointing, especially on OPS, Figgins underperforming, or out injured, Peavy wasn't firing on all cylinders, he was my 2nd pick, Oliver Perez went truly atrocious, Randy Johnson mostly bad, Rafael Betancourt a disaster, as was Heilman, Fausto Carmona, and Betancourt, nuff said, and I was in freefall.
Ryan Braun and Francisco Rodriguez were the only outstanding performers, Hunter and Ordonez very reliable, as were Theriot and Loney at a lower level, ie average, and Wheeler was holding my holds together, but Frankie Rodriguez was, even with all the saves, struggling to do it on his own
By the All-Star break I'd plummeted from 100-110 points, down to 68, and was still dropping, soon 11th, and looking likely to be 12th. My season was over, so I decided to get drastic, and dropped over half my roster. Drastically trawled the waiver wires, anyone hitting 500 over the last week to 2 weeks I was watching like a hawk. On pitching my strike outs were low, no-one was winning games, with Betancourt out my saves were totally reliant on Frankie Rodriguez, then Wheeler started to get saves, so I decided to pick up Balfour and Howell, and Ervin Santana (a bit earlier, I had him and Saunders for a while), so I started to stabilize my strike outs and saves, and improve my holds, even though still not winning games. Thome started to pick up.
But the batting was still problematic, I was getting through loads of streaky batters who would suddenly slump, so I started looking at the peripherals on Fan Graphs (what a seriously wicked site that is) like Contact Rates, O Swing, checking on BABIP and seeing if that was just luck or a part of their career patterns, but also I started to seriously watch games in which those waiver wire batters were playing, and seeing how much I trusted them, how easily they were stitched up etc, how quickly they were learning, and I started to make some sound judgements, picked up Aviles, Shin Soo-Choo, Denard Span, Jayson Werth for a while til he slumped, Spilborghs til he got injured, Mark Reynolds (even with the bad BA, I'd decided two sluggers with a bad BA were OK for now, my BA was seriously wrecked anyways, but there were a few teams nearby re runs and homers and rbi's. Thome was now picking up more, Figgins back and performing more creditably, picked up Mora, Fernando Tatis. Salomon Torres I picked up early too and he helped on the saves, This stabilized stuff, and I got back to about 73, and 9th place, but then got stuck there coming to the last month of the season. I was now tuning into new arrivals quite fast, after 3 games loved watching Nelson Cruz, and trusted him, felt his attitude was spot on, very zen, and since the Rangers were scoring runs at will in this period also picked up Marlon Byrd and Gerald, Laird picked up Dickerson, Jody Gerut, and now I was motoring, and finished the season in 6th place, on 93 points, and only 10 points off from the scrap for 3rd. An intense learning curve.
So what did I learn?
Starters, there are always semi reasonable starters coming up, who'll get you Ok'ish stats, but look for relievers who are dual qualified, with high strike out rates, set up men behind closers who are wavering, batters who are hot, but if their peripherals are iffy dump them fast at the remotest sign of a slump, even at the risk of losing them - thankfully I got Aviles back after he hit a mini slump. Look for teams who are hot, but as much as looking at the peripherals, seriously watch players really early on in their arrival, and see how fragile their confidence at the plate is, how easily they are stitched up, how much they believe in themselves, and how quickly they are learning.
Fingers crossed for ok'ish production from Choo, Cruz, Span and Aviles this season, they are in my keepers. And yeah I don't expect the same output this season from them, and I won't wait anywheres near as long before dumping players this year, since I now know how many players come through with value during the season, who weren't in the top 50/100 prospect lists, but have serious value even if long term. Hopefully I've pulled back a little from the bad draft I made last year.
And as an oldie, I hate to say it, but one at most of them on a team, the drop off when it comes is not shallow for position oldies in the MLB.
Intro
Image via Wikipedia
But then what to call it?
Needed some way of incorporating my nearly 20 year love affair with brit sub-bass breakbeat and chill-out music, my new religion baseball, and zen inspired abstract art a la Robert Motherwell
Thought about a play on Black Mountain, Motherwell had a great time playing baseball there in the 50's, gets mentioned
here in an interview with Motherwell.
Considering my age, thought of "Top of the 7th" ;) I'm coming up to 57, but then I've only been into baseball seriously for two years, including playing, and who knows when the game's gonna finish, and anyways ways too corny, then was looking for a play on bass and base, but couldn't come up with anything. So settling for this at the mo, naranja because I've always, right back to being a nipper, loved orange as a colour, so did Motherwell, and doing it in spanish hinted at his Spanish Elegies, the pic above is from that series of his. So if anyone can come up with something a bit cool, it would be more than appreciated.
I still might run with an idea I had last year, "The Baseball Virgin" :)
Now those were the main themes I wanted to post on, but I'm sure as hell I'll be touching on my classy mates, magic thinking (sadly still way too much hippy in me), I was pretty much a raj yoga monk for 20 years with cult connections, and lots of other tangential topics.
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